You are making the assumption that there is a valid and accurate test easily available. How many false negatives do you get? How many false positives do you get? What are the ramifications of that? Which lab or labs are actually making the determination? How trust worthy are they? There are still many unanswered questions as to the origin of this thing. It has not been totally established that it was just something that came about naturally. Is there a lot more to this that we need to know?
You’re right. There is much we don’t know. However, My main assumption is that America is very capable of producing a test and delivering it at scale.
We can do this.
A serological test isn’t rocket science. In fact it’s far easier to develop a simple and accurate test than it is to develop a vaccine. But we have to make it a priority.
I think it would be well to determine who is behind any universal testing that comes out, not only those who manufacture it, but those who paid for it, and those who make the final determination of positive or negative. There are individuals, institutions, and corporations out there that cannot be trusted. If all of a sudden the US were offered free, or very cheap testing from whatever source, we should definitely look that gift horse in the mouth.
We need a national reopen America plan with clear and specific milestones for getting our country back to work. It’s crucial. In my mind we should be back to work and open for business no later than April 30. To do that reasonably we need universal testing NOW. No effort should be spared to get testing happening and done. If the FDA is in the way moved them the heck out of the way. Same for any other problem. Solve it. We can’t get open and back to work too soon. The urgency cannot be overstated.
I agree with this, with an addition. Make nasal swab testing much more readily available to identify those with active infection (with or without symptoms), and for all who test negative to that (with or without symptoms), get them serological testing to see if they've been exposed but were asymptomatic at the time of infection and now have immunity, or are the still-at-risk-of infection group. The last group (no active infection, no antibodies) are the ones that should be isolating (for their own protection) more than anyone else... Those with active infection should be isolating to protect others. Those with antibodies (and immunity) are able to go back to work.
If testing is so crucial. why has South Korea been able to beat the virus with only 300,000 tests--less than 1% of their population? Your main idea is right--need to have healthy or non-symptomatic people go back to work and keep symptomatic or vulnerable people isolated. But we can't wait until we have 300 million people tested--how many times each to be sure? Cuomo is well intentioned but what he is missing, is a lot if not most of those dying would likely have died anywhay from flu or resp diseases--the stats show MOST deaths are among very old WITH complications.
It’s a good idea. I think they would have to test everyone in the country in one week. Everyone who was positive would have to be isolated, if they needed treatment, be treated. In one month, everyone would have to be tested again in one week to pick up those who were missed the first time. Everyone entering the country would be tested and whether they were positive or negative, be quarantined for two weeks, then tested again. No one is home free until they have tested negative twice.
You’re right. Self-administered pin prick test. It’d detect whether you have an active infection, had the virus recently but aren’t infected now, or if you haven’t been infected in recent weeks.
This isn’t impossible. There is a test for this in China and elsewhere today. Not expensive. We can do it. It should be a national priority.
Its not that hard have shelter in place for 60 and older, let the virus roll and people get immunity otherwise. School children can stay home to keep kids safe until the worst is over. everyone e lse back to work Ramp up testing till we have enough so everyone that wants one can get one get busy and get more ventilators.
Our economy is built on confidence. And without the information that testing provides, people will not be willing to just get back to work.
I, for one, don’t want my employees to get ill. I certainly don’t want them to spread it to one another. So without the clear data that ubiquitous testing would give us, I’ll continue to put productivity second to health.
I’m not alone. Our economy will suffer long after the virus peaks without solving the ubiquitous testing problem.
The question is: aren't these at home test kits just for single use? So what if everybody in the world got tested today, what does that say about the infection rate tomorrow?
Do you think this might lead to a false sense of security? Similar to people who get checked for STDs once a year and say "it's OK, I'm clean"?
If you want to leverage Amazons logistical power: how about Amazon teams up with practically everybody with a truck to establish a nationwide food delivery service, so nobody needs to leave the house to get groceries, pharmaceuticals etc.
This would allow for a complete shutdown where people won't even need to leave the house anymore. At all. Workers in power plants could isolate themselves in their work facilities for a couple of weeks, the same for doctors and other medical personell.
I think breaking the chain of infections should be the highest priority. What do you think?
You are making the assumption that there is a valid and accurate test easily available. How many false negatives do you get? How many false positives do you get? What are the ramifications of that? Which lab or labs are actually making the determination? How trust worthy are they? There are still many unanswered questions as to the origin of this thing. It has not been totally established that it was just something that came about naturally. Is there a lot more to this that we need to know?
You’re right. There is much we don’t know. However, My main assumption is that America is very capable of producing a test and delivering it at scale.
We can do this.
A serological test isn’t rocket science. In fact it’s far easier to develop a simple and accurate test than it is to develop a vaccine. But we have to make it a priority.
I think it would be well to determine who is behind any universal testing that comes out, not only those who manufacture it, but those who paid for it, and those who make the final determination of positive or negative. There are individuals, institutions, and corporations out there that cannot be trusted. If all of a sudden the US were offered free, or very cheap testing from whatever source, we should definitely look that gift horse in the mouth.
Good point. Trust in institutions is justifiably very low.
We need a national reopen America plan with clear and specific milestones for getting our country back to work. It’s crucial. In my mind we should be back to work and open for business no later than April 30. To do that reasonably we need universal testing NOW. No effort should be spared to get testing happening and done. If the FDA is in the way moved them the heck out of the way. Same for any other problem. Solve it. We can’t get open and back to work too soon. The urgency cannot be overstated.
I agree 100%!
I agree with this, with an addition. Make nasal swab testing much more readily available to identify those with active infection (with or without symptoms), and for all who test negative to that (with or without symptoms), get them serological testing to see if they've been exposed but were asymptomatic at the time of infection and now have immunity, or are the still-at-risk-of infection group. The last group (no active infection, no antibodies) are the ones that should be isolating (for their own protection) more than anyone else... Those with active infection should be isolating to protect others. Those with antibodies (and immunity) are able to go back to work.
Exactly right! Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
If testing is so crucial. why has South Korea been able to beat the virus with only 300,000 tests--less than 1% of their population? Your main idea is right--need to have healthy or non-symptomatic people go back to work and keep symptomatic or vulnerable people isolated. But we can't wait until we have 300 million people tested--how many times each to be sure? Cuomo is well intentioned but what he is missing, is a lot if not most of those dying would likely have died anywhay from flu or resp diseases--the stats show MOST deaths are among very old WITH complications.
South Korea had very aggressive contact tracing. They also have a culture of mask wearing masks which substantially slows the spread.
Thanks for your feedback.
It’s a good idea. I think they would have to test everyone in the country in one week. Everyone who was positive would have to be isolated, if they needed treatment, be treated. In one month, everyone would have to be tested again in one week to pick up those who were missed the first time. Everyone entering the country would be tested and whether they were positive or negative, be quarantined for two weeks, then tested again. No one is home free until they have tested negative twice.
You’re right. Self-administered pin prick test. It’d detect whether you have an active infection, had the virus recently but aren’t infected now, or if you haven’t been infected in recent weeks.
This isn’t impossible. There is a test for this in China and elsewhere today. Not expensive. We can do it. It should be a national priority.
We could do it. How would you ensure honesty if it were self-administered?
The vast majority of people are honest and want to do the right thing. And when in doubt you can retest someone. 15min for results.
I think the federal government would have to pay for it, and I think it would have to be done at drive-through centers, like they did in Korea.
The type of test I'm talking about gets results in 15 min and can be done at home no problem. Here's an example - https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1242628898887630848?s=19
Also- there is one man uniquely suited to make this logistical feat a reality: https://smith.substack.com/p/bezos-carnegie-moment?
Its not that hard have shelter in place for 60 and older, let the virus roll and people get immunity otherwise. School children can stay home to keep kids safe until the worst is over. everyone e lse back to work Ramp up testing till we have enough so everyone that wants one can get one get busy and get more ventilators.
Our economy is built on confidence. And without the information that testing provides, people will not be willing to just get back to work.
I, for one, don’t want my employees to get ill. I certainly don’t want them to spread it to one another. So without the clear data that ubiquitous testing would give us, I’ll continue to put productivity second to health.
I’m not alone. Our economy will suffer long after the virus peaks without solving the ubiquitous testing problem.
Interesting idea.
The question is: aren't these at home test kits just for single use? So what if everybody in the world got tested today, what does that say about the infection rate tomorrow?
Do you think this might lead to a false sense of security? Similar to people who get checked for STDs once a year and say "it's OK, I'm clean"?
If you want to leverage Amazons logistical power: how about Amazon teams up with practically everybody with a truck to establish a nationwide food delivery service, so nobody needs to leave the house to get groceries, pharmaceuticals etc.
This would allow for a complete shutdown where people won't even need to leave the house anymore. At all. Workers in power plants could isolate themselves in their work facilities for a couple of weeks, the same for doctors and other medical personell.
I think breaking the chain of infections should be the highest priority. What do you think?